IMF Group

Going Forward into the trough..

What concerns me is that we have poor memories of just the recent past, and are looking apparently optimistically towards the future, if you believe the talk of the Media about now is a good time to invest, it is if the stock is blue chip.

As with all investing, it is all about how much money can you afford to gamble, investing is about measuring odds from the inputs we receive sometimes from the media, our paid advisors who unfortunately may not all be coming from an impartial position.

Whilst I believe the Australian major banks are well capitalised and well provisioned, and they are priced at the moment as though we are running on top of the game, with little regard to the economy or the proliferary of small and medium companies radically downsizing or closing all together because of the lack of working capital. There is no point saying to Banks that they have a social responsibility, I am afraid they do not see it that way, all they see as with all Corporate Public companies is to maximize return to their shareholders.

OK. everything on the surface appears to be calm and ordered with the perception at least if you ask the politicians that we are coming out of the recession. Don't buy this, all it would take is the failure or more likely a bail out of a major Bank and we would tip off the abyss once more, there would seem to be no bottom to the hole we would fall into.....

Now about the Australian Federal Budget... personally some areas of the budget I commend, the national building aspects and the large infrastructure projects, such as roads, schools, hospitals etc are excellent, are way overdue, now what a Federal government has got to do with the building of a next generation, or perhaps the generation after that of high speed internet, escapes me. I am not suggesting that they should give it to Telstra, but it should hopefully be placed in the hands on someone who knows what they are doing, as quite frankly the majority of the Ministers in the Federal Government do not inspire confidence, as well those that I believe are fundamentally sound are following the old stayed party line of talking ineffectively about the past.. and comparing their actions with those of the Conservatives.

The Labour Party looked more together when they went into power, however the leadership has been somewhat lacking with Rudd out of the country more often than not in the last 18 months.... and his apparent hands on approach to running the country and his metaphorically micro managing of everyone portfolios, unfortunately many critical aspects of his policies are in my opinion - flawed.

The major point in the budget was the basing of the repayment of this almost AUD$200 Billion dollars that the Australian economy with be growing in excess of 4% in the relative short term. Don't buy it...I think perhaps we will be in this trough for sometime, and looking for a high growth cycle in 5+ years.  How they can make these predictions is beyond me, how can they even suggest this - their Financial modelling has no basis in the past to work forward with these poistive outcomes.... however in reality, my feeling is that there will be some major key event that will instigate the true recovery... as in the past, a world war, some event we can all work towards... worldwide... if we just cruise along the recovery will be some considerable time.

First Home Buyers Grants

If you live in Australia, you are all aware of the Federal Government’s First Home buyers grants and of course the State Government contribution to this with discounted stamp duties.

Now of the surface of this it looks great.. but if we delve further and although it can not have anything like the outcome scenario of the United States Sub-Prime disaster. There is potential for a serious down side to this practice.

These grants were put in place allegedly to help you home buyers get into their first home, actually it does this, but another reason is to help the building industry stay employed.

I wonder how many people look at the negative side of this scenario, I think it is great so long as both partners in the marriage or life partnership are employed, what happens if one or both partners are made redundant, in this economic climate, this may become the norm, other than the exception… or they have the news (great news) that they will soon have an addition to the family. Also lets not forget the obvious, an interest rate rise, once the economy starts to even warm up a little there will be all sorts of temptation by the Reserve Bank (the Federal Reserve in the USA) to increase interest rate (although anyone at the moment with these interest rates who didn’t lock a contract fixed rate – would have to be soft in the head) – now the worse thing that could happen is if more than one of these, happens at once, interest rate rise (if variable rate), out of a job, and or starting a family. 

Perhaps we should consider taking this assistance to your people entering the home ownership community a step further. Perhaps the Federal Government should loan direct to the Tax payers ?

That the loan would be guaranteed as paid by the Federal government for a period of say 10 years (minimum – or longer), or they would be able to liquidate other assets, such as superannuation towards an initial deposit… or to help with payments towards the house, as isn’t the prospect of keeping a house as an asset within a family a far better asset than currently the pathetic returns on superannuation.  Perhaps even the payments that his employer and the tax payer make that go towards superannuation – could go towards paying off his home loan.

Perhaps when the house is sold, the money borrowed from their super fund is returned – with no income tax component.

Talk to me…tell me what you think… lets create something that can make a difference..

 

 

Tags: Home+Buyer+grants

2009 - first Quarter and beyond...

If you have paid any attention to my blog over the years, you would have pulled you money out of the stock market and put it into cash and gold ages ago.  Now of course with the absolute free fall we are in with the stock market and the resulting pressure for corporations to be liquid, there are some incredible deals out there, with Real Estate and even some good investments on the stock market.   From where I sit looking at the share-holdings and the stock market,  it is way too late to liquidate for anyone, those people who bought into the dream of borrowing against their real estate to funds their life style or their investments are in, or soon will be in a desperate state of affairs.  The Dow is less that 50% of what is was... and although I feel we are perhaps not in free fall anymore, and will soon be entering a trough stage, which I feel will continue for probably 2–3 years. The USA and the World in general will not retain any of its former financial position for years, depending on Obama and what he is allowed to do.  I think he gets it, the seriousness of it, but the Republicans and their vested interests still have a really stupid outlook on economics in a macro sense.

I am wondering if there is a way out of this mess inside a generation. The reason I say this is that much of this mess has little to do with structure, but a lot to do with human nature. Human nature is not something that will change overnight. We need a dramatic change in the human mind, a complete Paradigm shift in attitude towards business in general.. Change Management applied to the Corporate World… dead loss… me thinks… thats why I think we are talking about change over a generation – thats why I don’t think we shall see the USA and the G7 in particular get back any of their former financial clout for 10 years possibly longer.  I think over the next few years (2–3 minimum) American growth will become positive, but low numbers 2–3% maybe…

The thought is – this is a problem we are experiencing, what have we learnt from it ?  Will we learn from it…?

Even after the first payments had been made to the ailing corporations, and still these corporation paid bonuses to people, when the company itself was losing money. I know that some of the structured bonuses are about individual sales performances, however to pay a bonus to a ‘C’ level executive under any circumstances when these corporations are in receipt of Tax Payers money is such bad management… when the thoughts on Wall Street are about ‘what can I get away with’ and the thoughts on Main street USA is all about watching their standard of living, what they are passing onto the next generation, their health, their standard of living go down… much to do with the sale job of the ‘Wall Street’ moguls… who enticed Main street America to borrow against their only asset, their house of those people who weren’t caught up in Mortgage Backed Securities (Sub-Prime) fiasco.  I been through this before…

However I think the only function that a government should have in a situation such as this is to make sure that the infrastructure – the banks and other mission critical organisations such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac etc, and to a point the major insurance companies (AIG) have to remain sound and therefore must be financially backed, Yes even if that means Nationalising them, which is effectively what is happening to AIG, Royal Bank of Scotland, and soon Citigroup, the rest of the companies, will need to live or die as per their own abilities and resources dictate.  Without access to money, corporate America will die in any case... In the manufacturing area, many corporations have stopped building and are just selling inventory – many others have gone to the markets and issued more shares to get their necessary working capital, they cannot get from the banks.   

The reason that the banks failed was their chasing market share at any cost, to basically make themselves a difficult take over target, whilst everyone’s pays their loans this is fine... but not enough due diligence went into the quality of their clients, and then of course we have the Sub Prime... which may have been the catalyst for these actions, for the corporate banking seeking ROI as the catch all, if the banking sector had not been so highly geared and the amount of capital that the Federal Reserve demanded they keep with them was a realistic level and not the petty cash it appears, this crash would never have happened to this extent.  Sure Merchant Banks would have gone under, as well as highly geared companies in general, once the funding providers started to call in their loans to cash up.. but this whole crash would never have gone to this extent...

A major reason that greed ran a muck and unchecked was the changes made to US Banking law... see here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass-Steagall_Act with the repeal of the Glass Steagall Act of 1933 over the years with the final repeal of the act being in 1999, in the final throws of the Clinton Administration. Or you can view a article I did on the act in a previous blog posting here.

 

So what happens when the interest rate set by countries Federal reserves hit 0%…. how can the government influence the market and give financial institutions and other large corporate players cash… what about the traditional way, buy shares, or perhaps give them money backed by say bonds or such like, payable in say 10 years, perhaps a minimal interest, which is in some way tied to the companies health.

 

 

 

Tags: 2009+first+quarter, 2009+world

2009 a new beginning....

Expect the best, Appreciate everything, Never ever give up, Money is not an end in itself, Make it fun, listen, create a vision, Lead, think, invent, Regroup, Wink, Chill, Smile, and live as if success was inevitable and so it will be. -  that is my credo....

Currently working in commodities, all I can say that this is hard work, very long hours and will kill you if you let it. I know why people do not work here long term....just plain wears you out....The other observation, is that some of the people that inhabit this sector, you could very generously describe them as being human and ethical....where 2 spin for their own benefit to justify their position seems par for the course. This applies to almost everyone, from long term business relations, close confidants as well as people you met in the street, I believe I am a straightforward, ethical and honest person, I strive always to treat other people as I would wish them to treat me, and I think I am mostly successful in this. However I recognize there are those on their own agenda who can never be pleased - the reason why one put up with all this anarchy is that in the commodities world if you jag, a big contract - your financial well being and the attainment of your worldly goals is assured.

Ethical practices should abound here...for instance my business partner...who I worked with for some months, during that time I have learnt an incredible amount...about this sector, something that had taken her a considerable time to accumulate...and for that I cannot express my thanks in words.

My goals are to use the income from this business to set up profit centers, where the profit will as much as 25-30% before tax to go into the formation of new charities to help those people that cannot help themselves - seems an excellent time to do this.

I have some understanding of World Economics...I amongst a throng predicted our current difficulties for too long...with no one taking any notice. Now its too late...Unless something absolutely unexpected happens, like the USA as a whole dramatically changes, the USA is dead as a world economic power...by 2011-2012 the power will be split between Russian, India and China. Although I feel that Obama has the understanding...can he get what needs to be done through congress and the senate...don't think so... the only way that America has a chance is if there is a complete Paradigm shift in the thinking of the people....moving from this poor me, I am entitled, we have always been on top attitude to you have to work for what you get...nobody is going to give you anything. If I had money to burn...I would go and buy a million dollars of the India Ruppe and the Chinese Yuan - then watch those funds appreciate in value against the US Dollar.

I know there are decent people in the USA...there are just not enough of them to make a difference and make it happen...with the schisms in the population by state, by age and by religion...for instance you can track the rise in the the religious right (including christian fundamentalists) since after the Vietnam war...to the fact that these secular / religious corporations enjoy a tax free status - with a good sales income....and most have absolutely no accountability for their actions. And where Oh where did this Creationism crap come from..? They have this bull in school now...a nail in the coffin of a once proud enlightened and educated nation..so they have to invent something to give credibility to the Bible, don't think it needs it ... so much for the separation of powers of the Church and State...Guys there were Dinosaurs....kind of puts a hole in the Creationism theory ....and ignoring it if you could ignore a T-Rex...doesn't make it right...it just makes you look like a fundamentalist - not different to those that follow every letter of the Koran...the Bible was once explained to me by a great man as a book of stories with morals to teach us...so we learn...not blindly follow some law written about Pig Skin thousands of years ago...it you want Christianity to be relevant then make it relevant to the era we live in...

Another thing ... what will happen next is a push for protectionism...for Labour (happening now in the UK) and where possible goods...this can be done in the USA due to the domestic market...where it will lead to a complete loss of worldwide loss in confidence in the USA...almost like a child...where when they get a bit upset ....they take their toys and go home...God I hope they don't do it...it will just accelerate the destruction of the US economy. And you question why the USA will fail...seriously hope I am wrong here...don't think so.

Economics wise the result is in almost world wide return to the days for a fair days work a fair days wage....this idea that still permeates Wall street that these bonuses are necessary to keep the bright staff is absolute self serving bull....well if those bankers, financiers or other high fliers don't think they are being paid enough...let them leave and see how many of them actually even get another job.

I beg you - come back to reality...the normal man in the street, is hurting....worldwide...if you cannot impose some self control...then the government will evoke some controls through the amount of money it has poured into these companies and vote these self serving idiots out...let them see if they ever get another job - no one minds people having bonuses when times are good, and companies are in profit...but to still pay themselves bonuses .... when these same companies are in turmoil and there is so much red ink around - is absolutely irresponsible...and some would say broaching on the fraudulent....because how can Wall Street pay billions in bonuses when companies are making a loss.

World priorities should be.....(1) Sustainability in all green areas, food, water, energy, recycling (2) Investment in Solar and Wind power (3) Financial resolution...(4) Less greed ..and so much more..

World News

I have mentioned this before….the current supply of energy through to the west via the Ukraine is a mini economic war…and as with all wars there are no winners…I would draw your attention to the following article from the guardian newspaper…http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/12/russia-ukraine-gas-gazprom

Economics…

The flow on effect of the Wall Street meltdown is still in effect, we are still at the low point of activity across the US Economy…which of course has flow on effects across the entire world…we are currently in the trough…a sort of hiatus for the world economic activity…the only problem with this is the longer we stay in the trough the deeper the harm to the economies, and the more this damage will be view as semi-permanent and the forefront of perhaps a depression rather than a recession.

The flow ons from this will be more unemployment, the US rate is expected to rise to 7.6% by April 2009, seasonally adjusted – see below…from the Financial forecast centre..http://www.forecasts.org/unemploy.htm

With President – elect Obama working on how to bring the US Economy, further losses of million of jobs and the the rest of the world back from the edge of a true depression…I can only wish him well, and that the people who he puts in positions of responsibility actually have the ability and his continued support to get things done…surely the experience for the general population in the rest of the world is going to get worse before it gets better.

The solution will have to include all aspects of the economic community…including the government, management,work force an the unions…although the recent speech from the ACTU, the Australian peak body demanding wage increase of up to 33%…see the following link to the Australian article…http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24889935-5013871,00.html  truly wonder about the ACTU…..

Tags: Gas+Europe, USA+Forecast+unemployment

Some time away....

Apologies for the inaction of the blog. I have been so busy working in the commodities trading side of the business that I have little time to notice what day it is as the hours, tumble into days into months.

We have been very involved with the commodities market…Petroleum market where we have been working on forward supply contracts for D2 (Diesel) , JP54 (jet fuel) and innumerable other fuels, products and lubricants…as well of course with our work in Gold

This new experience joins in my mind with the tales of my youth, this almost indifference for the fate of others…..when I was in primary school at a well know boarding school. It was winter – at the time, the only swimming pool which we had was an outside pool, and in winter there was this nice layer of ice to break through to get to the water (the cold…cold water) …and at 5am, this nice layer of ice would be right across the pool, well the older boys, including the prefects, used to chase us around the pool, grab us as they could and then trauma and abuse would ensue before finally throwing us in the pool to break the ice….to this day I hate the arrogance and the irresponsibility of their actions on kids (I was 10years old) towards someone they were supposed to protect.

It is this action, this irresponsibility towards their fellow man and woman, their fellow country men …that has placed the USA and much of the world in one of the biggest financial hole in living memory, perhaps in history…at this point in time it ranks second only to the crash…and yet its long term effects may be more profound than this and may leave us wishing for that time.

Lets encapsulate the effects, which we have been through on this blog before…severe constriction in the banking sector…100,000’s of highly qualified people out of work, and facing their own paradigm shift – those who cannot find work in their local area, will be forced to sell up…some at a considerable discount…which along with the sub prime disaster has led to a dramatic downturn, in the current realisable value (on paper) on their real estate – this again has follow on effects into their personal banking, especially if they are highly geared..

A severe down turn in the economy which will reflect in the downturn in retails sales in all aspects of the U.S. economy, with follow on effects into many countries through out the world, primarily with direct effect in China and other manufacturing economies throughout out Asia..and finally to those countries that provide mineral commodities such as Australia.

This is highly simplistic version of events….but quite a mess, so I will need to catch up on the news and come back to you with a constructive view on the matter.

 

Tags: Catchup...World+in+a+nutshell

Wall Street

The financial disaster of Wall street is just stage one – the onwards reflections into the market as a whole are what really is going to put the cat amongst the pigeons – as well the 2nd level of CDO’s – Sub Prime Mortgages – that we all hope won’t hit the market as quite the disaster as its earlier sibling has done - if it does the American economy will go from recession to depression in the blink of an eye – of course if this does happen, it will create uncontrollable monumental flow effects right around the world as the whole world slides into financial chaos and severe recession or depression.

                  

The cost of living will go up – this will be due to many factors, including rises in the cost of primary products – transport – currency exchanges and one forgotten component will also have an impact – factories produce economically at a certain production output – those factories that are built to say produce something for $4, their products cost per unit will increase , especially in the areas of fixed costs as the output goes down due to slackening demand.  I notice on one of the US Television programs the other day, where some manufacturers were bringing our a box of let’s say some breakfast food – where the box looked the same size – but was marginally thinner perhaps , holding less but the same purchase price. What price do we pay for these practises, the loss of ethical behaviour, truth and honour – or is it as simple as just survival?.   

Tags: Fallout+form+stage+one

Fallout

They say a revolution from time to time is a good thing.

We are connected – not just spiritually, but thanks to the global economy – all countries in the world are tied together – what happens to one, happens to all of us. So the lack of Government regulations (as well as Government supervision and and the cowboys of Wall Street have done it in for all of us) – This trend in the past towards a Global economy is halting – there seems to be a reticence to continue along this path, with the recent collapse in free trade talks – which may indicate a World wide retreat from free trade – and in some countries, as it has done before a trend towards isolationism.

I do not think that the USA will be amongst them this time around – as too much of their consumer products and even some of the essential items for day to day life are imported, I have spoken about this in the past.

The lack of liquidity – no matter how good your Balance sheet looks has claimed some other victims as below:-

With the European Union – pontifical statements about union  and we will do things in co-ordination and then almost immediately a bail-out by German for Hypo-Real Estate. This was an essential act considering the critical involvement that Hypo has in the funding of infrastructure construction and repairs throughout Germany. This also

In Belgium and The Netherlands –  The bank Fortis is bailed out – in fact nationalised – then a brokered sale of parts of Fortis to BNP Paribasis who is set to become the biggest bank in the eurozone in terms of size of deposits after agreeing to take over Fortis's operations in Belgium and Luxembourg for €14.5bn in cash and shares.– The takeover, brokered by the Belgian government, follows the surprise nationalisation of the group's Dutch businesses, allowing BNP to clinch a deal just a week after its first offer was rejected.  The Belgian government will become BNP's biggest shareholder with an 11.6 per cent holding, while the state of Luxembourg will own 1.1 per cent.This correction is going to far especially of those excellent stock that are being undervalued by this general fall as if into an abyss.

Stock Markets: In Australia – the graphs are self explanatory

Stock Exchange Last 5 years                           Last 12 months (approx)

     

Graphs are of the Australian Stock Exchange indices performance over time and were produced by netquote.com.au Graphs  The Dow Jones Industrial average also hit a new psychological mark on Thursday, falling below 9000 for the first time in 5 years – the Down fluctuated wildly and by the end of business Friday – the Down had fallen another 500 points – closing at 8,451.19 is this the bottom ?  Two notable stocks not to be caught up in the melee was Apple and eBay – who swam against the prevailing market conditions, closing up.

Whilst the falls across the boards are a reflection of the reality – some of these sales are all about emotion – the removal of assets into cash – and the desperate strategy to try and come up with something that works. I know that this is hard – but ladies and gentlemen – those assets for instance in the 1987 crash and recession – took just 2 years to come back to at or close to their pre crash positions.  If you are with a excellent stock – currently for instance the sell downs of BHP, RIO and Fortesque  (and many others) are not being driven by any strategy just again a desperate emotion and the underlying need to cash up.  Soon the market must reach a point where the quality and the price of these shares are just too good to resist and buying will begin again – and the slow crawl back will begin – I cannot see the heights of 12,000 + for the DOW being reached – as too much of that stock price was driven by hype with very little reality.

Of course the the untold story is what this rout is doing to the yields on our Super-annuation funds. What yields I hear you say.

Tags: Fallout+Global+economic+crisis, economic+crisis

After the Bail-Out

Frankly although I feel that the bail-out will ultimately be a good thing, a necessary thing that had to be done, my view is that it will take sometime to make any substantive difference.  There perhaps may have been an alternative way to go – to use those funds to support – directly support the Banks – by re capitalising them.

Although the idea of bailing out Private companies – is probably an anathema to most Americans – but aside from the financial aide to Wall Street that one hopes will be repaid one day – the real reason for this is about very straight forward strategy – (1) Its about confidence in American Business (2) It to lessen the slide in a severe recession, which if it had happened may have spiralled into a full blown depression.  If that happens the financial world as we know it will cease – business will slow down, capital will drain away and huge numbers of people world wide will be without a job.

Something else that should be happening now is rewriting the laws that run business, as business is obviously incapable of self regulation and control, we need to impose these controls – I wonder at the end of the day what controls will be instituted, after a bit of time – lobbying from the Financial Industry and as we know politicians have very short memories – perhaps the repeal of the repeal  of the Glass Stegal Act? – increases in the bank reserves, I know that it would be difficult to repeal fractional banking – but perhaps we can reduce the multiplier – so that the banks had more cash reserves – cash!

To me this whole process of the bail-out has ended up buying time – that is all – its like the Hans Brinker – the fictional boy who save his home and town by keeping his finger in the dike – when questioned he said 'I am keeping the water from running out,' was the simple answer of the little hero. 'Tell them to come quick.' – but this is indeed fiction – written by a American author Mary Elizabeth Mapes Dodge (1831-1905).

The US Federal Government and Government throughout the world have embarked upon a strategy of increasing the liquidity in their markets – however it hasn’t really been the Golden fix – because banks are very reticent to loan money to other banks – let alone corporate clients – the people who have money do not have the confidence to lend money as they are worried where these terrible CDO’s will turn up – so really the problem is one of perception of insolvency – unfortunately it is now effecting business world wide. 

Without cash to fund cash flow and normal business ventures – corporations (except for the Oil companies in the short term especially Exxon) will contract, capital will leech away and growth will slow and depending upon when the confidence starts to rebuild (I think we have bottomed out in the crisis – but not as yet in the flow on effects of it) – we could hit a severe recession in the USA – this will have worldwide effects.

China needs to export to the USA – with worldwide demand slackening orders placed on China will fall significantly  – however they cannot stop as America now needs the Chinese Industrial complex for basic items as it  has shutdown so much of its capacity in areas that were directly competitive with Chinese products – it would take the will, time and perhaps some Tariff protection to restart them – then we come back to the issue to start new enterprises we need money – who would provide this?

With a downturn in exports – the Chinese USD$ reserves would fall quickly – this would motivate the Chinese government to source commodities in the country, therefore not using their USD$ reserves.  I have been told by people in the know that this is now in action.

With a downturn in worldwide sales from China – what would happen then – China would dramatically reduce its need for commodities on the worldwide market – Ouch!! that hurts

Australia

Is having it own problems – the Insolvency perception is working here as well – however with the Prudential controls that are on our banks I cannot foresee a similar bank failure unless these problems are being kept out of site, or off the books.

CEO and chief apologist for the Australian Banks has been announced it is Mr. Wayne Swan the Australian Treasurer – who is saying he won’t force the banks to pass on any full flow of effects of a Reserve Bank interest reduction – does he know how much these banks are making in profits ?  and on the other hand how Australian families are suffering – a 1/2% reduction would be a big help, they might eat properly again – think about it – you are supposed to care about the battlers – remember.

Also this 4 Billion dollar buy back (Sydney Morning Herald Reports) of Australian AAA Mortgages – the current market for these securities in Australia is in excess of A$50 Billion dollars – what will $4 Billion do ? perhaps buy morning tea? It is a blatant political move to give the perception that they are being Pro-Active – the first tender for these purchases is slanted for December – and the next a date to be announced next year, I am astounded that it is so little money and and that it is taking so long to actually get to the market – the only good thing about this manipulation is that it does show the potential for support if the Financial markets in Australia further deteriorate

Mr. Rudd – Swan is in over his head – find somebody that (1) knows something about finance (2) knows what he is doing – this would be a great start (3) Projects some confidence – how about somebody of the calibre of Malcolm Turnbull.  The Labor party has always had the perception of being poor economic managers – try and break the mould, also Mr. Rudd, how about staying home and look after Australia.

Tags: After+the+Bailout

Media, New Media: Convergence - is misleading

I wrote a paper about this - if you like I could post it here - convergence as a term with Media & New Media is misleading - TV and the mass media models will never be replaced by the Internet as they are effectively two separate markets - TV, Newspapers and cable including satellite are true mass media technologies whereas the Internet is not - and with the current pipes and technology it is not going to be - I am not saying here that the Internet will not have a effect on the media (old media if u like) because it will - any use of the Internet for access to entertainment or even other purposes whatever that might be – will effectively take away part of the market from Broadcasters – but not in the way that most people postulate – there are new technologies in place Using the next generation of interactive video technology and services, through the global adoption of the Real Time Content Media Platforms – this will allow potentially companies that I work with in New York and San Francisco to use their technologies and enterprise platforms for the formation of personalised TV channels on the Internet - targeted directly to you and hence paid for by targeted advertising.

I keep saying this – Old media needs to use the facilities of the Internet – for forming communities – to involve all viewers into supporters of a particular show or network – sort if you like like the old fan web sites – but in this case to actually involve them and listen to what they have to say.

Hard copy versions of Old Media, Newspapers, magazines will be hit fairly hard in the long term – but it will not obliterate the media – what may be the death knell for Newspapers as we know them, primarily me thinks due to the costs of distribution via costs of production and transport, printing costs and the long term backlash for sustainability in all media.

Have a look here for the download of my original paper..however my views have changed from earlier this year as well - now I don't consider the impact will be as profound.

Tags: Convergence+is+misleading